One of my favorite stories involves a blind street vendor of hot dogs. One day, one his customers suggested that if business was good, he should consider expanding. The customer offered to help the blind vendor with introductions to a banker, and so the vendor ended up buying a second cart, and hiring someone to work for him. That worked out so well, that he was able to buy more carts, and hire more people. This gave him enough discretionary income that he was able to send his son to college. The son majored in business administration. When the kid graduated, he returned home to see that his dad had purchased a corner lot and an old diner trailer that he rennovated and opened as a freestanding restaurant. The son was horrified. “Dad…don’t you know the economy is lousy! You shouldn’t be expanding right now…you need to pull in your horns and hunker down for a long recessionary period. This has got “Depression” written all over it! You’d better be careful, or you’ll lose everything!”
The father thought, “Well…my son did go to college, which I’ve never done, and he did major in business, and he did get a degree. Maybe he’s right.” So he sold the restaurant, sold off the other carts, and went back to working a single street corner, selling hot dogs. He thought, “Boy, my son was right. The economy is lousy.”
I don’t mean to belittle the dangers we face from all the greedy mortgage companies, hedge fund operators, and politicians, but I can’t help but think that a lot of our economy is driven not by facts and figures, but by perception and personal experiences. Case in point: gasoline prices.
I have a friend that runs a local restaurant. Nice place. Your average meal is going to set you back around $20, a little more if you go for an adult beverage and a desert. I asked him if business was off. He told me that it had been off when gasoline was closing in on $4/gallon here, but now that it’s below $2/gallon (!), business is back up, and in fact is even better than it had been well before the September Panic.
Think about that. People vote with their wallets. When they don’t have enough money to buy a tank of gas, going out to eat is a luxury they can live without. When gas is cheap, dinner out is okay. Perception becomes Reality.
Now if you’re a layoff victim, I’m sure you see the economy as a disaster. Here in Amarillo (so far, anyway) we’ve been largely immune from the effects of the recession. No idea why – but I’m glad. I’m certainly sympathetic to people who are suddenly without jobs, and I think there’s lots of blame to go around – blame for people like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Company, that got us into this mess by trying to game the system for their own benefit. However, I can’t help but think that if you can look at things with a positive attitude, the economy will improve – and improve faster than it would if we all rely on the folks in Washington, no matter WHO is running things.
Can we use what Norman Vincent Peale called “the Power of Positive Thinking” to turn a recession into a great economy? Probably not, but we can use it to keep a recession from turning into a depression, and help us turn things around faster. Of that much…I’m positive.
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