I’m not much on modern-day prophesies. It’s hard to live up to the Bible’s standards for who is a prophet (and who’s not): 100% accuracy. Still, it’s tempting to try and read the tea leaves on the election and predict who will win. Unlike most of the pundits, I’m gonna take a stab at it. (Note to pundits: making informed “guesstimates” is what you’re paid to do. Saying “too close to call” is to punditry what voting “present” is to Senators. Ahem.)
I think McCain will pull it out in a squeaker. Here’s why…
1. The Libs and Dems hate Bush too much.
There’s a really wicked proverb by a noted ancient wise man that applies here:
“Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.” — Confucius (551 BC – 479 BC)
Simply put, much of what is motivating the far left is an irrational hatred of Bush and the right wing. When you’re out for revenge, it’s easy to screw up. Add up the ACORN flap, Rezko, and the rest, and something will end up sticking.
2. Obama’s peaked too soon.
This is a timing thing, but I can’t help but think that The Chosen One has pulled ahead too far away from the finish line. If I’m right, within the next two weeks, Obama’s Teflon® will start to wear off and things will start to stick. It is said that if the ’68 election had been held just two weeks later, Nixon would have lost, and Hubert Humprhey would have become the President. In politics, timing is everything.
3. McCain campaigns best as an underdog.
McCain’s primary performance didn’t begin to percolate until he got so far behind that he was counted out. Nothing gets him motivated like a need to come from behind. I think, perchance, events have conspired to create the perfect situation for McCain’s best campaigning.
4. Polls lie. A lot.
In this election, that will cut both ways. In the last local election, I voted for a number of black candidates, because I thought they were better qualified, and because I thought the incumbents needed to have a forced time-out. I’m not convinced that the rest of the country is as race- or gender-neutral as I am. I wish they were, not because I would like to see Obama win, but because I don’t think race or gender should matter one whit. Still, I know for a fact that a huge number of people will say “I’ll be voting for Obama” or “I’ll vote for Palin,” but when they get behind the curtain, and nobody’s watching, prejudice often rears it’s ugly head. I’m not sure, but I suspect they’ll be a lot of that, this time around.
5. The public has a short attention span. Even for the economy.
If gasoline prices keep going down, and the market stabilizes next week, all eyes will turn to Obama. And that won’t help the Dems. It’s one thing to make a lot of promises. It’s another thing entirely to have people pick them apart on a slow news day. If the economy cools off as an issue, Obama will have to face questions about his tax policies, associations with Wright, Ayers, et all. Playing defense is not Obama’s strong suit.
Okay. I’ve stuck my neck out. We’ll see what happens. Unlike the TV pundits though, at least I have the stones to make a prediction.
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